Dicks vs. Fattah
Even though David Obey will remain chairman of the House Appropriations Committee for the rest of the year, the race to succeed him within the Democratic party has already begun. Whoever wins that race will probably have a direct effect on the future of the for-profit earmark ban that Obey announced back in March.
The clear front-runner at this point is Norm Dicks of Washington state. Dicks is the most senior Democrat on the Committee after Dicks, has served on the Committee for over 30 years, and is currently the chairman of the defense subcommittee.
The long shot candidate is Chakah Fattah of Pennsylvania. Fattah ranks 21st out of 37 Democrats on the Committee. He has been on the Committee only since 2002, and has never chaired any of its 12 subcommittees.
If Democrats retain their majority in the House after the next election, then the Democratic caucus (i.e. all the Democrat members of the House) would select the next chairman of the Appropriations Committee.
In my view, the only way that Fattah could win is if he got the active support of Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In that case, Fattah would be much more beholden to the Speaker’s wishes than Dicks, who has been in Congress 10 years longer than Pelosi. And Pelosi, I believe has been the primary proponent on the House side of the for-profit earmark ban.
Now Dicks has gone along with the for profit earmark ban, but I doubt that he has a great deal of enthusiasm for it. He has supported many earmarks in the defense bill for for-profit entities in the past. Fattah, on the other hand, is making his candidacy about changing spending priorities of the committee, emphasizing education and de-emphasizing defense. This makes him less likely to be sympathetic to for-profit earmarks, the bulk of which are contained in the defense bill. Also since Fattah knows he needs Pelosi’s support to win the gavel, he is more likely to work hard to convince her that he would be a stronger supporter than Dicks would.
Dicks, I’m sure, realizes that he needs to make sure that Pelosi either supports him or is at least neutral in the election for the chairmanship of the committee. For that reason, whatever his true feelings about the for-profit earmark ban, I would not expect him to do anything in the coming year to undermine it. If he is elected chairman he may have more room afterwards to assert his own views. Much will depend also on how strongly Pelosi herself feels about the for-profit earmark ban and making it permanent. Some of the pressure on this issue will probably subside after the November elections. However, if Republicans continue to try gain political traction on the earmark issue, this will make her more inclined to extend the for-profit earmark ban.