Earmark Bills Likely To Be Delayed Until After Elections

In an opinion piece today in the Fiscal Times, Stan Collender, a former Congressional budget staffer and one of the most astute observers of the Congressional budget process, predicts that Congress will probably not pass the FY2011 appropriations bills until after the midterm November elections.  Congress passes twelve regular appropriations bills each year which fund the government and contain Congressional earmarks.

In making this prediction, Collender notes that for political reasons, Congress may not adopt a budget resolution this year.  Typically, the House and Senate Appropriations Committees can only move forward on their bills until a budget resolution has been passed.  If Congress fails to adopt a budget resolution, the Appropriations Committees can move forward, but only if after May 15 they “deem” the resolution as passed.

With Congress in recess for the week around Memorial Day, the week around Independence Day, and for five weeks during August through Labor Day, and plans to break around October 1 so House members and senators can campaign, that doesn’t leave a lot of time for Congress to finish its work on these bills.  Furthermore, a new Supreme Court nominee and financial reform are likely to crowd out a lot of this time on the Senate calendar. 

If Congress fails to pass the appropriations bills by October 1, their most likely response will be to pass a continuing resolution, which will let agencies spend money for a limited time, probably a couple of months, at FY2010 levels.  However, continuing resolutions typically don’t permit agencies to begin any new programs or procurements.  And since FY2011 earmarks won’t be available until Congress passes the FY2011 appropriations bills, and it generally takes the agencies sometime afterward to execute funding for earmarked projects, companies expecting earmarks can expect an additional delay of a few months for earmark projects.